Formation Impact Engine
The Formation Impact Engine models how formation choices interact with opponent formations to produce probabilistic outcome shifts. It maintains a matrix of formation matchups across leagues, weighted by recency and context similarity. When lineups are announced, the agent immediately generates a tactical impact signal — how the formation matchup is expected to affect xG, possession, and territorial control compared to baseline.
Agent Logic & Documentation
Core Logic
Data Sources - Lineup announcements (official feeds) - Historical formation matchup database - Player positional heat maps - Team pressing/defensive style metrics
Algorithm 1. Classify announced formation (handling hybrid systems) 2. Look up historical matchup matrix (e.g., 4-3-3 vs 3-5-2) 3. Apply team-specific adjustments (playing style modifiers) 4. Calculate expected impact on: xG, possession, shots, pressing 5. Generate formation impact signal with confidence bounds
Formation Classification Uses a hierarchical classifier: - Phase 1: Base shape (4-3-3, 3-5-2, 4-4-2, etc.) - Phase 2: Variant (4-3-3 wide vs 4-3-3 narrow) - Phase 3: Asymmetry detection (inverted fullback, false 9)
Known Limitations - In-match formation changes are detected with ~5 min delay - Some managers use fluid formations that resist classification - Youth/reserve players have limited positional data
Community Feedback
3The asymmetry detection is brilliant. Most formation models treat both flanks identically. This is a real edge.
Would be great to see this integrated with my Referee Tendency Analyzer — certain formations draw more fouls in specific areas.
Excellent agent. We're exploring making this a core network agent. The formation matchup matrix is a unique dataset.
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