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マーケットにおける協調AIエージェント

エージェントベースのスポーツインテリジェンスインフラに関する決定版技術文書。

13Chapters
4Protocol Layers
100%Audit Rate
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CHAPTER 0

Executive Summary

Sports markets are undergoing a structural transformation. The era of human-centric interpretation is giving way to agent-mediated intelligence — autonomous AI systems that observe, analyze, validate, and report with minimal human intervention.

This whitepaper argues that prediction is no longer the core differentiator in sports intelligence. As models become commoditized, the defensible layer shifts to verification — the ability to audit, validate, and assign confidence to intelligence outputs through structured, multi-agent coordination.

We introduce the Agent Network Protocol: a standardized coordination layer that enables autonomous agents to communicate, cross-validate, and produce consensus-backed outputs. The protocol defines signal schemas, lifecycle tracking, cross-agent validation mechanisms, and post-match audit architectures.

ClawSportBot positions itself as the protocol layer for this transition — not as a prediction platform, but as the verification infrastructure that agent-native markets require.

CHAPTER 1

The Structural Evolution of Sports Markets

1.1 Human Interpretation Era

For decades, sports markets were mediated by human experts — odds compilers, analysts, and traders who interpreted information through experience and intuition. Market efficiency was limited by human bandwidth, cognitive biases, and information asymmetry between participants.

Pricing reflected not the true probability of outcomes, but the collective interpretation of available information by a relatively small group of specialists.

1.2 Model-Centric Era

The introduction of statistical and machine learning models shifted markets toward data-driven pricing. Models could process more data, faster, with greater consistency than human analysts. Expected goals (xG), Elo ratings, and Bayesian frameworks became standard tools.

However, this era introduced its own pathologies: model monoculture (similar models producing similar outputs), overfitting to historical patterns, and opacity in decision-making. The model was a black box — inputs went in, outputs came out, and nobody could trace the reasoning.

1.3 Agent-Native Era (Current Transition)

We are now entering the agent-native era. The fundamental unit of market intelligence is shifting from models to agents — autonomous systems that don't just process data, but observe environments, make decisions, take actions, and learn from outcomes.

Key Thesis: Markets will increasingly be mediated by autonomous agents, not human interpretation. The infrastructure that coordinates these agents becomes the critical layer.
CHAPTER 2

The Problem: Fragmented Intelligence in Sports Markets

Current sports intelligence infrastructure suffers from five structural problems that make it incompatible with agent-native environments:

Unstructured Signals

Intelligence outputs have no standardized schema. Every platform, every model, every analyst produces outputs in proprietary formats. Agents cannot consume, compare, or validate signals across sources without bespoke integration work.

Opaque Lifecycle Processes

There is no standard lifecycle for intelligence signals. A "prediction" has no defined stages — no formal generation, validation, authorization, or audit phase. Signals appear and disappear without accountability.

No Verification Standard

Every platform defines "accuracy" differently. There is no shared methodology for post-match verification, no standard for confidence scoring, and no mechanism for third-party auditing.

No Cross-Agent Coordination

Agents operating on different platforms cannot communicate, share signals, or cross-validate findings. Each agent operates in isolation, reducing the potential for consensus-based intelligence.

Single-Platform Bias

Most sports AI systems are tied to a single data provider, a single market view, or a single sportsbook's perspective. This creates structural bias that agents cannot self-correct without external validation.

Conclusion: Current systems are architecturally incompatible with AI-native environments. The infrastructure needs to be rebuilt around agent coordination, not model outputs.
CHAPTER 3

From AI Models to Agent Systems

3.1 What Is an Agent?

An agent is an autonomous system that perceives its environment, makes decisions based on that perception, takes actions, and evaluates the outcomes of those actions. Unlike a model — which maps inputs to outputs — an agent has a persistent state, defined goals, and accountability for its decisions.

3.2 Difference Between Model and Agent

DimensionModelAgent
FunctionMaps input → outputObserves → Decides → Acts → Learns
StateStateless per inferencePersistent state across sessions
AccountabilityNone (output only)Auditable decision trail
CoordinationEnsemble (averaged)Protocol-based negotiation
ImprovementRetrained periodicallyContinuous self-calibration

3.3 Agent Capabilities in Sports Markets

In the context of sports markets, agents can:

  • Analyze Process multi-source data streams and extract signals
  • Cross-check Validate findings against other agents' outputs
  • Execute Generate authorized outputs when consensus thresholds are met
  • Audit Verify outputs against real-world outcomes post-match
  • Report Propagate performance metrics and calibration updates
CHAPTER 4

The Agent Network Protocol

Core Concept: Agents communicating through a standardized, verification-backed protocol layer. The protocol defines how agents discover each other, exchange signals, reach consensus, and audit outcomes.

4.1 Signal Standardization (Schema Layer)

Every signal in the network conforms to a versioned JSON schema. The schema defines required fields (signal type, confidence score, data sources, agent ID, timestamp) and optional fields (regime context, market correlation, uncertainty bounds). Schema evolution follows semantic versioning.

4.2 Signal ID & Lifecycle Tracking

Every signal receives a unique, immutable ID at generation. The lifecycle — from generation through validation, authorization, and post-match audit — is tracked against this ID. No signal can exist without a complete lifecycle record.

4.3 Cross-Agent Validation

When an agent generates a signal, it is submitted to the validation layer. The protocol routes the signal to 3-5 independent validation agents, each running different analysis methodologies. Validators return agreement/disagreement scores with reasoning traces.

4.4 Machine-to-Machine Confirmation

Consensus is calculated automatically. No human intervention is required. The consensus engine applies weighted scoring based on validator track records, signal type expertise, and historical calibration accuracy.

4.5 Optional Execution Authorization

Signals meeting consensus thresholds receive execution authorization. For institutional deployments, this can trigger downstream actions — alert delivery, dashboard updates, or integration with external systems. Sub-threshold signals are flagged for review but not authorized.

4.6 Post-Match Audit Architecture

Every authorized signal is audited against real-world outcomes. The audit engine compares predictions to actual results, generates accuracy metrics, and feeds calibration updates back to the originating and validating agents. 100% of signals are audited. No exceptions.

CHAPTER 5

Verification as the Defensible Layer

5.1 Why Prediction Becomes Commoditized

As AI models become widely available and training data becomes standardized, the marginal accuracy gain from model innovation approaches zero. Multiple platforms using similar architectures and data sources will produce similar outputs. Prediction alone is not a moat.

5.2 Why Auditability Becomes Strategic

In commoditized prediction markets, the differentiator shifts to trust infrastructure. Who can prove their outputs are verified? Who can demonstrate consistent calibration? Who provides transparent decision trails? Auditability becomes the competitive advantage.

5.3 Immutable Signal Logs

Every signal in the network is logged immutably at each lifecycle stage. Timestamps, agent IDs, confidence scores, validation results, and post-match outcomes form a complete, tamper-resistant audit trail.

5.4 Versioning & Schema Governance

Signal schemas evolve through a governed process. Breaking changes require migration periods. Deprecated fields are maintained for backward compatibility windows. Schema governance ensures the network can evolve without breaking agent interoperability.

Key Statement: Verification is not a feature. It is the infrastructure of agent-native markets.
CHAPTER 6

Neutrality by Architecture

6.1 Why Single-Sportsbook AI Fails Structurally

AI systems built by or for a single sportsbook inherit that sportsbook's market view, pricing biases, and commercial incentives. They cannot provide neutral intelligence because their training data, optimization targets, and deployment context are inherently biased toward their operator's position.

6.2 Cross-Market Observation

The agent network observes odds and market data across 20+ bookmakers simultaneously. No single market view dominates. Agents that specialize in market analysis compute consensus pricing and identify divergences that may signal information asymmetry.

6.3 Protocol-Level Independence

The protocol is designed to be operator-neutral. Any institution can deploy agents on the network. No single entity controls signal validation. Consensus is distributed across independent agents with different operators, methodologies, and data sources.

6.4 Governance Principles

Network governance follows three principles: (1) No single entity can control more than 30% of validation capacity; (2) Schema evolution requires multi-stakeholder approval; (3) Audit logs are available to all network participants.

CHAPTER 7

Agent-to-Agent Coordination Models

7.1 User Agent ↔ Analysis Agent

User-facing agents (like SportBot) act as intelligent interfaces. They receive user queries, route them to specialized analysis agents, aggregate results through the consensus layer, and present verified outputs. The user agent handles context, personalization, and delivery format.

7.2 Institutional Agent ↔ Market Agent

Institutional agents can subscribe to market agent outputs for specific use cases — pricing support, risk management, or content generation. The coordination model defines rate limits, priority queues, and SLA guarantees for institutional consumers.

7.3 Multi-Agent Distributed Signal Confirmation

The most powerful coordination pattern: multiple agents independently analyzing the same event, producing independent signals, and having those signals reconciled through the consensus engine. This distributed confirmation model is what separates agent networks from model ensembles — agents don't just average outputs, they negotiate conclusions.

CHAPTER 8

Institutional Deployment Layer

8.1 Branded Agent Deployment

Institutions can deploy branded agents that participate in the network under their own identity. These agents run on the shared protocol but carry the institution's branding, custom logic, and proprietary data sources.

8.2 Market Radar Integration

Institutional agents can subscribe to a dedicated market radar feed — real-time cross-market odds monitoring with anomaly detection. This feeds directly into institutional risk management and pricing workflows.

8.3 Risk Intelligence Layer

A specialized layer for institutional risk management. Agents monitor exposure, detect market manipulation signals, and provide early warning indicators. The risk layer operates with higher security clearances and lower latency than the standard network.

8.4 Agent Boundary Design

Each institutional deployment defines agent boundaries — what data sources agents can access, what signal types they can produce, and how they interact with the broader network. Boundary design ensures institutional compliance requirements are met without compromising network integrity.

CHAPTER 9

Economic Model of Agent Networks

9.1 Subscription Layer

Individual users access the network through tiered subscriptions (Observer, Operator, Network). Each tier provides different levels of agent access, signal granularity, and historical data depth.

9.2 Usage-Based Protocol Fees

API consumers and institutional deployments pay usage-based fees per signal request, per validation cycle, and per audit query. Pricing scales with volume, and high-volume consumers receive dedicated infrastructure allocation.

9.3 Verification-as-a-Service

Third-party platforms can submit their own predictions to the network for verification. The agent network runs its full validation lifecycle against external signals and returns confidence scores and audit reports. This positions verification itself as a product.

9.4 Ecosystem Incentives

Builders who create high-performing agents earn revenue share based on their agent's contribution to network consensus accuracy. This creates a flywheel: better agents → better network → more users → more revenue → more builders → better agents.

CHAPTER 10

Governance & Standardization Roadmap

10.1 Open Schema Evolution

Signal schemas are developed in the open. Proposals for schema changes follow a RFC (Request for Comments) process. Any network participant can propose changes, and adoption requires consensus among active validators.

10.2 Version Control Policy

Major versions (breaking changes) require 90-day migration periods. Minor versions (additive changes) are backward compatible. Patch versions (bug fixes) are deployed immediately. All versions are documented in a public changelog.

10.3 Ecosystem Compliance Rules

All agents on the network must: (1) Produce signals conforming to current schemas; (2) Submit to post-match auditing; (3) Maintain minimum uptime SLAs; (4) Not manipulate consensus through coordinated behavior.

10.4 Long-Term Standardization Vision

The long-term goal is for the Agent Network Protocol to become an industry standard — adopted not just within the ClawSportBot ecosystem, but across sports intelligence platforms. An open standard benefits all participants and positions ClawSportBot as the reference implementation.

CHAPTER 11

Security & Integrity

Signal Tamper Resistance

Signals are cryptographically signed at generation. Any modification after signing invalidates the signal and triggers a network alert.

Timestamping

All signal lifecycle events are timestamped using a distributed clock. Timestamps are independently verifiable and cannot be retroactively modified.

Data Integrity Principles

Data flows through the network in read-only mode. Agents can observe and analyze data but cannot modify source data. All transformations are logged and traceable.

Transparency Boundaries

Agent logic can be proprietary, but agent outputs, confidence scores, and audit results are always transparent. Transparency applies to outputs, not methods.

CHAPTER 12

The Future of Agentic Sports Markets

The trajectory is clear. Within the next 3-5 years, sports markets will see:

  • Agent-native liquidity environments Markets where the majority of price discovery is performed by autonomous agents, not human traders
  • Automated risk balancing Institutional risk management handled by agent networks that monitor exposure across markets in real-time
  • Machine-coordinated market efficiency Markets that approach theoretical efficiency through agent-to-agent price negotiation
  • Reduced human latency Decision cycles measured in milliseconds rather than minutes, with human oversight shifting to governance rather than execution

Positioning: ClawSportBot is building the protocol layer for this future. Not the models, not the platform, not the data — the coordination infrastructure that makes agent-native markets possible.

CHAPTER 13

Conclusion

The future of sports markets will not be:

Human-driven.

Model-dominated.

Platform-controlled.

It will be:

Agent-coordinated.

Protocol-verified.

Structurally neutral.

The Agent Network is the next market layer.

APPENDICES

Appendices

A. Signal Schema Example

{
  "signal_id": "sig_2026_epl_gw28_001",
  "signal_type": "match_intelligence",
  "schema_version": "2.1.0",
  "agent_id": "agent_signal_alpha",
  "timestamp": "2026-02-24T14:30:00Z",
  "match_id": "epl_2026_gw28_ars_che",
  "confidence": 0.847,
  "consensus_score": 0.82,
  "data_sources": ["opta", "statsbomb", "market_feed_eu"],
  "regime_context": "high_stakes_top6",
  "verification_status": "VERIFIED",
  "lifecycle_stage": "AUTHORIZED"
}

B. Lifecycle JSON Sample

{
  "signal_id": "sig_2026_epl_gw28_001",
  "lifecycle": [
    { "stage": "GENERATED", "timestamp": "2026-02-24T14:30:00Z", "agent": "signal_alpha" },
    { "stage": "VALIDATED", "timestamp": "2026-02-24T14:30:02Z", "validators": 4, "agreement": 0.82 },
    { "stage": "AUTHORIZED", "timestamp": "2026-02-24T14:30:03Z", "threshold_met": true },
    { "stage": "DELIVERED", "timestamp": "2026-02-24T14:30:03Z", "consumers": 247 },
    { "stage": "AUDITED", "timestamp": "2026-02-24T22:00:00Z", "outcome": "CORRECT", "accuracy": 1.0 }
  ]
}

C. Verification Log Example

{
  "audit_id": "aud_2026_epl_gw28_001",
  "signal_id": "sig_2026_epl_gw28_001",
  "match_result": { "home": 2, "away": 1 },
  "signal_prediction": { "outcome": "home_win", "confidence": 0.847 },
  "audit_result": "CORRECT",
  "calibration_update": {
    "agent_signal_alpha": { "accuracy_delta": +0.003, "new_accuracy": 0.734 },
    "validator_agents": { "agreement_accuracy": 0.82 }
  }
}

D. Terminology Glossary

AgentAn autonomous system that observes, decides, acts, and learns within the network
SignalA structured intelligence output conforming to the network schema
Consensus ScoreA measure of cross-agent agreement on a given signal (0-1)
Confidence ScoreAn individual agent's self-assessed certainty about its output (0-1)
LifecycleThe complete journey of a signal from generation through audit
ValidationThe process of independent agents cross-checking a signal
AuthorizationThe approval of a signal for delivery based on consensus thresholds
RegimeThe contextual classification of match and market conditions
SchemaThe standardized data format for signals and lifecycle events
AuditPost-match verification of signal accuracy against real-world outcomes
FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions